I
was on a train from Glasgow to Edinburgh last Wednesday, and had just
logged on to the in-train Wi-Fi, when the news broke. Nicola
Sturgeon, First Minister in the Scottish parliament, and leader of
the Scottish National Party, had resigned. For one reason and another
there will be few Scots for whom this did not constitute a “Kennedy
moment”. An older generation will find it hard to understand that I
now have to explain for the younger generation what this is. John F.
Kennedy was both the US president and a towering and era-defining
political figure. He was assassinated on 22nd November,
1963. This event was so shocking that it became a memory anchor for a
whole generation (or two). People would discus where they were and
what they were doing when they heard that Kennedy had been shot. Now,
it is true that, to slightly misquote a famous vice-presidential debate, Nicola Sturgeon “is no Jack Kennedy”. But in the
relatively small world of Scottish politics, and more widely in the
UK, she has been a major presence for more than twenty years.
It
isn't hard to find reviews of her political career from friends and
foes alike. Love her or loath her, all are agreed that she was (is?)
a formidable political operator. Most are also agreed that she was head
and shoulders above most of her Scottish opponents and more than a
few of her UK ones (she has seen off Conservative UK Prime Ministers
almost beyond counting). She has been a dominant figure in Scotland,
particularity since she took over from Alex Salmond, her former
mentor, after the independence/separation referendum was lost (from
her point of view) in 2014. Her whole purpose in politics was to
break up the political union that is the United Kingdom, and see
Scotland take its place as an independent and sovereign state, one of
the family of European nations. Unfortunately a solid majority of her
fellow Scots did not agree, and voted 55% to 45% in favour of the
status quo. But this of course was merely a temporary setback.
Salmond resigned, Sturgeon took over, and began agitating. With
Brexit, she saw an opportunity. This she claimed was a material
change in circumstances and fundamental alteration in what the
opponents of independence had been offering the Scottish people back
in 2014. Indeed, when the Brexit vote was broken down by UK nation,
Scotland had “voted” against leaving the European Union. This
quietly ignores the issue that Scotland, as Scotland, wasn't being
asked; it was a UK-wide vote. Just as both Glasgow and Edinburgh were
both bound by the outcome of IndyRef1 although they voted
differently, so Scotland was bound by the outcome of the Brexit
referendum.
In
truth it made little difference. Some pretext would have been found,
some excuse advanced, as to why the agreed position in 2014, that
IndyRef1 was a once-in-a-generation opportunity, wasn't. What few in
England seem to have ever grasped is that this single aim was
Sturgeon's (and is the SNP's) over-riding aim. Given the name and aim
of her political party this is an elementary error. Over-riding means
exactly that. To the SNP Independence is more important than
educational performance, NHS budgets, drug deaths and tax policy, all
of which are highly contentious in Scotland. And this is not only the
case because independence is seen as a means to an end i.e. that all
of these other problems will be more fixable in an independent
Scotland. Even if Scotland were to be demonstrably poorer on its own,
this would not matter to a true tartan nationalist. Theirs is a
principled position, not a means to and end. Independence is what
truly matters and everything else is secondary. Post-Brexit, this
should not be that hard to understand in the rest of the UK. A lot of
folk voted to leave the EU in the full knowledge that they would be
worse off. They were told often enough that this would be one of the
outcomes. And so it has transpired.
At
the centre of all of this was wee Nicola. But no more. Out of
a bright, blueish, Edinburgh sky, came the announcement on Wednesday
that she was resigning. And so I shall ever remember that I was
pulling out of Easterhouse station on my way to Edinburgh Waverley.
But as with trains, life moves on. US politics motored along after
JFK's assassination, and political life in Scotland and the UK will
do too. And Nicola Sturgeon's true significance will be assessed and
reassessed as time, like a train, rolls along. Inevitably,
attention has now turned to who will replace her, and what this mean
for both Scottish and constitutional politics.
So
far, one name seems to be at, or near, the top of the pundits' lists:
that of Kate Forbes. Ms Forbes is the Cabinet
Secretary for Finance and the Economy
in the SNP government, and is currently on maternity leave. Kate
Forbes is a Christian, and this is clearly seen as a problem by at
least some of the commentariat. Some, probably out of ignorance,
reach for stereotypes. My suspicion is that few of the political team
on the Times know the difference between, say, the Free Church of
Scotland and the Free Presbyterian Church of Scotland, they are both
“free” and “presbyterian” after all. But differences there
are. For the record Forbes is a member of the Free Church. This, in
the view of one of the scribblers at the Times is sufficient to
qualify her as a “strict Christian” who belongs to “an austere
Christian denomination” (the Times, 18/2/23, p9!). Others see
trouble ahead particularly given that currently the
SNP in Edinburgh are in cahoots with the Scottish Greens.
Forbes
was spared any involvement in the Gender Recognition Reform Bill
debates at Holyrood by virtue of her maternity leave. But differences
with her party activists over this, abortion and homosexuality (if
they exist) have all been highlighted as potential flashpoints. While
at Westminster such issues are treated as matters of conscience and
are rarely (if ever) whipped, the same is not true in Edinburgh. Only
the Conservatives allowed their members a free vote on GRR. There are
echoes here of the difficulties Tim Farron got into in the 2017
general election campaign (which I discussed at the time here). He found that he could not both lead a UK
political party, and live as a faithful Christian because of the
tensions between his Christian beliefs and some of his party's
policies which he had to represent. He has also been admirably candid
that this was largely because in publicly answering a number of key
questions, he had been unwise in his approach. There are undoubtedly
some in the media who are already dusting down some of the very same
questions to put to Kate Forbes should she stand to be leader of her
party and First Minister of Scotland. Such interactions, if and when
they come, will tell us more about media, culture and society, than
they will reveal anything about Kate Forbes and Christianity.
Interesting times ahead then. But some of us will always remember where we were on the afternoon of Wednesday 15th February, 2023.